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  • Floradamus: Then and Now

    By David Kaplan aka “Floradamus”

    Are you wondering if you should really trust this Floradamus man?

    Let’s take a look at the first article that Floradamus published in October 2010 on Flowers & Cents, and see what’s happened since then.

    Changes and Challenges for the Flower Business for 2011

    THEN: As most of the Flowers & Cents contributors and readers can tell, the flower industry is currently in a great deal of flux, turmoil, and some scandal for lots of reasons. 

    NOW: Mostly true but with less scandal.  

    THEN: For the first time a major recession has had a great impact on what used to be viewed as a recession proof business. 

    NOW: No recession, and hopefully one does not come! 

    THEN: World economic conditions now impact North America more than ever. 

    NOW: Even more true today!

    THEN: Some of these reasons go back to the problems of the USA Floral and Dole purchases and eventual sales. (All at discount prices)  Not to mention outside capital propping up the industry such as AIG. 

    NOW: We are definitely in an age of mergers and acquisitions at the retail, wholesaler, importer, and grower level. 

    THEN: In many cases we have been left with a fragmented and challenged industry that does not always work logically in the economic sense.

    Exchange rates, which used to be a profit center for farms have now forced many growers to reconsider why they are even in the flower business. 

    NOW: Exchange rates continue to rattle growers especially from Colombia where rates have dropped to the 3700 and change rates per dollar in November of 2025 from the 4500 rate in April of 2025.  

    THEN: Bankruptcy is pushing many farms out. Some of the surviving farms are cutting corners that result in less than stellar quality. Weather issues have also been a major factor in resulting in lower productivity in Central and South America not to mention the massive storms the United States had during Valentines.

    Breeders are avoiding markets that are becoming more and more financially challenged. Many breeders cannot collect royalties due to the large amount of farms that are under financial protection. Only a small percentage of Colombian growers are planting new varieties and maintaining their farms in a manner that will produce high quality product. These are the growers you must support in order to see the business stay viable. The old constant over supply may become a thing of the past.

    THEN: Airlines are challenged as well. Volumes and schedules have been off as they find other commodities in other locations are willing to pay more per kilo than flowers. 

    NOW: Freight rates have recently increased to the states from South America and for many airlines other markets have recently become more appealing. 

    THEN: We all agree (as many posters comment) how essential the cold chain is.

    THEN AND NOW: So what does the future need for future success at all levels? 

    THEN: We have to analyze the current distribution network and make it more efficient. In this last recession all kinds of businesses restructured the way they operate. This is often painful in the short term, but if we do not fix the inefficiencies the flower business will shrink to a model that only appeals to a small percentage of the population. 

    NOW: We continue to improve this but lots of work still needs to be done!

    THEN: The Flower Industry was “fat” at all ends for many years in the last century. Growers made money – even with latent over production. Distributors and wholesalers made money – even with costly physical structures, extremely high overhead, and inefficient models. 

    NOW: It’s very hard to make this happen today with inflation and the labor market.

    THEN: What do we have to do to restore the Gleam back to Flower Industry? NOW: Great question!

    1) Become more efficient at all levels   NOW: Still very true

    2) Shorten the “distance between producers and end users” NOW: This is happening more and more. Increase education to buyers with hands-on interaction  NOW: This needs to happen more.

    3) Everyone has to realize that in the long-term it is better to give producers a fair return that allows the farm a chance at survival and provides its owners with an investment that makes sense and is practical. NOW: This still needs to happen to keep a level playing field.

    4) Revisit how flowers are sold throughout the chain and fix inefficiencies, reduce overhead, allow the industry to grow, NOW: Again, this must happen continuously.

    5) Reduce the high cost of distribution with better logistics, technology, and packaging-old fashioned distribution at the grower and some wholesale levels has to be reinvented. NOW: Continue to become a more sustainable industry.

    6) Retailers as well as mass markets need to be more committed to handling quality product and varieties. This will keep their customers coming regularly rather than being disappointed on occasional events. NOW: This is happening as the variety of novelties and high quality flowers continues to increase.

    THEN: It is not just the grower or the buyer that has led the market to evolve to today’s state.

    All sides have been guilty to some degree. We have to have an industry that allows all sides to win. 

    NOW: A win-win has to be the way, including for the consumer.

    THEN: Retailers are squeezed more and more everyday. 

    NOW: This continues, just check how many retailers have closed in the last 15 years. 

    THEN: The percentages they pay order gathers and “wire services” keep increasing. This results in the consumer being provided with less value because the retailer cannot make money without skimping. So less repeat business and a declining market for everybody in the chain.

    Everyone can see the numbers of how many fewer retailers there are now as compared to 10 years ago. Many retailers also have issues that are unrelated to the flower business as well. The current residential and commercial real estate market makes it extremely challenging for retailers to downsize their physical location if they own their building because they cannot afford to take the hit. Declining business has resulted in many retailers being in a building too large for their needs. Some foreclosures have resulted from this economic dilemma.

    Many wholesalers have structures that only work when they pay low prices and are able to make large margins. Many distributors have large overheads and have to pass these costs on. The current situation is starting to unravel as we read on Flowers & Cents about all the changes and some scandals. Some wholesalers are closing or selling because they are finding it difficult to make money and collect money. 

    NOW: Today with ACH and credit cards collection should be a non-starter and collecting money should not be an issue.  

    THEN: Some distributors are downsizing and moving into more economical warehouses in order to be able to survive. 

    NOW: Another reason why we are seeing wholesalers buying a location in a city they may have a location already.

    THEN: Growers are able to get better prices by shipping to other world markets (some times much higher). 

    NOW: This continues today sometimes due to exchange rates, freight rates and market conditions. 

    THEN: Some of these markets pay almost immediately while others have very little credit risks. North American markets have to become more appealing or we will become a secondary market in the supply chain. 

    NOW: With Russia and Ukraine, North America became more attractive but as Europe and Asia’s economy strengthened we are seeing more competition.

    THEN: As some of the posters have pointed out recently that most farms cannot live on the large low-end mass market and big box pricing models. In some cases this downward squeezing has driven out some supply and distributors. 

    NOW: With costs increasing, mass market pricing has risen but is still much cheaper than traditional retail. Often florists are using some mass markets to buy certain colors and items instead of purchasing from their usual wholesaler.

    THEN: High quality mass markets with good customers counts are providing farms with good returns and volumes. Innovative products in all forms have attracted a large segment of the buying public to these stores. 

    NOW: For example, no one would believe the amount of items like dahlias, garden roses, and peonies being sold at the mass market level now.

    THEN: I will leave the subject of e-commerce for another editorial. 

    NOW: E-commerce has grown immensely in the last 15 years.

    THEN: To summarize:

    This industry has to get more and more efficient. 

    NOW: Yup, this is happening through technology and will continue more with the evolution of AI. 

    THEN: General Motors knew what it was doing wrong for many years. It took a crisis for them to eliminate brands and downsize. They knew if they did not change they would disappear. Fix the flower model or it will become a bigger problem in the future! 

    NOW: A lot still holds true for that statement. 

    NOW: I leave everyone with one thought. Will history repeat itself like it did very early in the 2000’s and the large consolidations fall apart like Dole and USA Flora or will they be incredibly successful and continue to grow?

    See you in the future,

    Floradamus

    For more on the economy, logistics, inflation, and more, see The Wizard’s Wand News!

    To contact Floradamus through Above All Flowers 

    Email: aboveallflowers@mac.com

    Call: 401-486-0525

  • November 2025

    By David Kaplan

    Greetings from the Wizard,

    Economic News

    Finally, the 43-day government shutdown is over! Trump signs bill to end the longest government shutdown on record

    The bill, which funds the government through January, was passed by the House in a 222-209 vote and by the Senate with support from seven Democrats and one independent. The bill includes provisions for a bipartisan budget process, funding for the SNAP program and ensures federal workers will be paid for the shutdown period. The shutdown has delayed government economic data and has disrupted many agencies.

    Consumer confidence is weakening on economic, and labor market concerns

    Bloomberg reported that US consumer confidence fell for the third consecutive month in October, reaching its lowest level since April. The drop is attributed to concerns about the economy and labor market, with more consumers expecting fewer job opportunities in the next six months. US small-business optimism declined in October, with the National Federation of Independent Business index falling to 98.2 from 98.8 in September, driven by weaker earnings, labor shortages and concerns about the government shutdown and tariffs. Despite the index remaining above its long-term average, uncertainty remains high.

    Retail sales rise ahead of holidays in October

    Retail sales rebounded in October, climbing 0.6% over the previous month and 5% compared to the same month last year, according to the NRF/CNBC Retail Monitor. The growth follows a dip in September and signals strong consumer activity heading into the holiday season. Total retail sales for the first ten months of 2025 are up 5.11% year-over-year.

    Corporate profits continue to rise amid weak job market

    According to CBS News, US corporate profits are soaring to new heights, and the stock market is near record highs, but despite this financial success, companies across various industries are aggressively cutting jobs, a trend not typically seen during periods of strong profitability. Analysts point to the rapid adoption of AI, which is increasing business productivity and reducing the need for labor, as a key factor behind this unusual divergence between profits and employment.

    US job losses increase in October  

    The US economy experienced job losses in October, particularly in the government and retail sectors, amid cost-cutting measures and increased use of AI, according to private reports. Revelio Labs reports a loss of 9,100 jobs, including a decline of 22,200 government positions. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports a 183% increase in planned layoffs, with technology companies leading the way, while the Chicago Federal Reserve estimates that the unemployment rate rose to 4.36%.

    Consumers remain resilient but much of the numbers are coming from affluent households.

    Early third-quarter earnings reports from major companies highlight ongoing consumer resilience, though the strength appears to be driven primarily by affluent households.

    To quote a recent Reuters article there is a widening economic divide is impacting US businesses. Companies that serve lower-income consumers are facing declining sales and profits, while affluent households continue to sustain overall spending. Lower-income consumers are delaying purchases, seeking discounts and struggling with affordability as inflation remains elevated. Some companies are adapting products for both ends of the market, while firms reliant solely on budget customers are experiencing financial strain and workforce reductions.

    Aggressive immigration tactics impact US labor market

    The White House’s immigration crackdown is affecting the US labor market, with aggressive deportations, stricter enforcement — and most recently a major fee hike on H-1B visas — driving out low-wage and skilled immigrant workers. Employers across sectors report acute labor shortages as the loss of immigrant labor makes it increasingly difficult for industries such as agriculture, construction and health care to fill essential roles, leading to a nationwide slowdown in hiring and job growth. We have heard of large amounts of labor not showing up for work in the Northwest to harvest Christmas greens due to not wanting to deal with Ice.

    The Federal Reserve

    On Wednesday October 29th the Fed approved the second interest cut of the year largely due to the faltering labor market. The Fed has a growing concern over labor market softness, and this now outweighs inflation risks.

    Fed officials seem divided on December rate cut outlook

    According to Yahoo Finance “three Federal Reserve policymakers – Austan Goolsbee, Mary Daly, and Lisa Cook – have expressed uncertainty over whether the Fed will cut rates again in December. Goolsbee said he’s more concerned about inflation, which remains above the 2% target, and noted limited data due to the government shutdown. Daly said she’ll “keep an open mind,” balancing inflation and job risks, while Cook emphasized her concern for employment but stressed that policy isn’t on a predetermined path and each meeting remains live.” Federal Chair Jerome Powell openly acknowledged “strongly differing views” among committee members, reflecting uncertainties over whether to prioritize signs of labor-market weakness or continued economic growth, especially heading into December. He cautioned that further cuts are not assured, noting that the lack of economic data due to the government shutdown could necessitate a more cautious approach.

    Tariffs

    Supreme Court appears skeptical of Trump’s tariff powers

    Although no decisions have been made by The Supreme Court  they have expressed doubt about President Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs without explicit congressional approval. CNBC reported Justices questioned whether the law grants such broad authority, with Justice Neil Gorsuch highlighting potential misuse by future presidents. The court’s decision could affect previously paid duties and future tariff policies.

    Importers feel Supreme Court-ordered tariff refunds would be simple

    A CNBC report said US importers feel refunding tariffs paid would be straightforward if the Supreme Court orders repayment, saying detailed customs paperwork tracks all tariffs paid. The Supreme Court has expressed skepticism about the legality of some of the Trump administration’s tariffs but raised concerns about the complexity of repayment. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says repayments could total as much as $1 trillion.

    Tariffs have continued to drive up prices

    Tariffs imposed in 2025 have led to an overall 4.9 percentage point increase in retail prices, according to a Tax Foundation report. Imported goods have seen prices climb by six percentage points, while domestic goods rose by 4.3 points, with both figures based on new Harvard research. The Tax Foundation explains that domestic producers often raise their prices in response to higher import costs, staying just below the latest import price to remain competitive and increase profits.

    Tariffs could cost firms $1.2T, hit consumers harder

    S&P Global estimates that global businesses will face $1.2 trillion in costs from President Donald Trump’s tariffs this year, with two-thirds of the costs falling on consumers. Based on information from 15,000 analysts, the analysis suggests that only a third of the costs will be borne by companies. The tariffs, including a 10% levy on all US imports, have prompted companies to diversify supply chains and onshore production.

    Tariffs have created a global shift as companies seek new markets on both the import and export side

    Bloomberg has reported the highest US tariffs in nearly 100 years are significantly altering trade flows, leading countries and businesses to seek alternatives to the US market. Countries are redrawing trade routes and forming new alliances, such as Canada increasing car imports from Mexico and China sourcing soybeans from South America (although after Trump’s meeting with China the US Farmers should regain their soybean exports.) US trade barriers are also causing some companies to stop importing goods into the US due to rising costs, prompting them to look for overseas customers instead.

    Inflation

    Inflation has risen modestly to around 3%. Importantly, the increase appears driven more by service-sector costs—such as housing, software increases, and financial services rather than by tariff-related goods inflation. For the time being, businesses have absorbed much of the cost pressure, though whether this is sustainable remains to be seen.

    Personal income is growing at a 5.1% annual rate, and real disposable income remains positive despite inflationary pressures. Real hourly earnings are up 0.7%, and real disposable income is up 1.9%. Consumer balance sheets are strong, supported by two consecutive years of 20%+ equity market gains and housing prices up over 50% since 2019.

    Personal consumption expenditures are growing at a 5.5% annual rate. Retail sales are up 5.0% year-over-year, reflecting continued consumer demand and a healthy appetite for goods and services.

    Logistics

    Freight shipments fell sharply in October, but higher rates kept total freight revenue about the same according to Cass Information Systems.

    As we know UPS had a fatal crash of an MD-11. UPS and FedEX have grounded their MD-11 widebody cargo jets following the deadly crash of the plane as it took off from the UPS global hub in Louisville, Kentucky. UPS expects the flight grounding on the MD-11’s to be temporary. Boeing recommended the suspension of flights while they exercise an abundance of caution and work with the FAA and the NTSB investigates the accident.

    A slump in ocean shipping demand since U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a raft of new tariffs on trade partners earlier this year has helped send ocean container rates to their lowest since January 2024, threatening profits at major carriers including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd (from Reuters). The Drewry World Container Index (WCI), which tracks the spot market rate to transport a 40-foot cargo container on major shipping lanes, dropped to a 20 month low of $1669 per 40 foot container.

    Conclusion

    • Looking ahead to 2026, the broad direction for interest rates is down as long as inflation continues to cool and the labor market does not weaken sharply.
    • If inflation cools and growth continues, we hope to see a doveish Fed
    • High income consumers continue to drive demand. The top 20% of all households account for about two thirds of the spending.
    • The cost of goods, labor, services, insurance, and logistics are still increasing. It is more important than ever to become even more efficient.
    • Ice is continuing to scare current labor sources. The government wants to charge crazy amounts for special work visas.
    • The Supreme court has not yet decided on the legality of tariffs. Hopefully this comes soon and is favorable. In our additional stories section, we have a few articles about tariff concessions. (Although nothing has broken loose on flowers, we hope it happens soon. Trump’s administration is negotiating with Ecuador and Guatemala to roll back Tariffs on flowers. Hopefully we will see some results like we have seen on food items and other items not produced in the States. Several floral agencies and organizations like SAF, AFIA, IFPA, and others are lobbying the government to stop charging tariffs on flowers.
    • Exchange rates: 1 USD =3,803 Colombian Pesos (as of Nov 23rd) down almost 12% since April 2025 resulting in less pesos for every dollar. The exchange rate for the Euro to the peso is currently 1 Euro=4,362. This explains why many Colombian growers are looking to expand their market in Europe. The exchange rates are not helping flower prices.
    • Trump has repeatedly stated he would not rule out attacking Colombia drug operations.
    • The Trump administration recently stated that they were going to go after the countries that support drug trafficking against the United States. We have a large military presence off the coast of South America.
    • Currency exchange rates are still causing higher flower prices.
    • The third quarter of 2025 closed with a surprising degree of economic resilience. Despite the implementation of historically high tariffs, the U.S. economy has continued to grow at a healthy pace. Financial markets have responded favorably, driven by strong corporate earnings, enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI), and a renewed easing stance from the Federal Reserve.
    • Personal income is growing at a 5.1% annual rate, and real disposable income remains positive despite inflationary pressures. Real hourly earnings are up 0.7%, and real disposable income is up 1.9%. Consumer balance sheets are strong, supported by two consecutive years of 20%+ equity market gains and housing prices up over 50% since 2019.
    • Personal consumption expenditures are growing at a 5.5% annual rate, with real growth at 2.7%. Retail sales are up 5.0% year-over-year, reflecting sustained consumer demand and a healthy appetite for goods and services.
    • As 2025 draws to a close, the U.S. economy continues to defy early-year concerns, demonstrating resilience in the face of elevated tariffs, policy uncertainty, and a moderating growth environment. Key pillars such as consumer strength, AI investment, and monetary support have helped sustain expansion.
    • AI spending is accelerating at an unprecedented pace—raising the question: Are we witnessing a bubble or the foundation of a long-term transformation? (However, the most recent market drop has not helped the AI market)
    • Between November 13-November 18th the stock market has been down. The Dow lost over 2200 point on those 4 days. Most markets were at their all time high three weeks ago. Is it time to sell or buy the dip?

    Let’s hope for a Santa Claus Rally. When people feel they have more money they spend more on flowers!

    All these economic factors and conditions influence some part of the Flower industry to some degree. We are all in this together.

    Thanks for reading my rants,

    The Flower Wizard

    To contact David Kaplan (also known as the “Flower Wizard” or “Floradamus”) at Above All Flowers
    Email: aboveallflowers@mac.com
    Call 401-486-0525

  • Floradamus Speaks

    By David Kaplan aka “Floradamus”

    The Return of Floradamus

    Fifteen long years ago, I, the flower wizard, David Kaplan, wrote an article under the name Floradamus. With all the crazy things going on, I felt it was time to bring him back! There is a lot to think about.

    Who is Floradamus? He’s like Nostradamus, he makes prophecies. Some of them may turn out correct and some are completely wrong (Flora Dumb Ass).

    Who was Nostradamus? Nostradamus was an oracle. An oracle is a person considered to provide insight, wise counsel, or prophetic prediction of the future.

    Floradamus is a “Floracle,” if you will. Hopefully Floradamus’ predictions will prove to be more impactful than Nostradamus himself. 

    Why now?

    The world has changed a lot since I published my last few articles: politically, economically, socially, and in many other ways. The flower industry faces many challenges as well as many opportunities in the future. 

    Mergers and acquisitions will become even more prevalent in the future in all sectors. Farms, importers, retailers, logistics companies, and wholesalers will continue to be sold to other operations as for many economies of scale make great sense. The daily question will be… who did so-and-so buy today? Other entities might just disappear. With costs rising, it is not as easy to run smaller operations as they do not provide a large enough return on investments and the margins are compressed. 

    Private equity is becoming more involved in the flower business. We will see who will be successful when it becomes time to cash out and flip some of these operations.

    Insurance of all kinds is running higher along with other necessary costs. It is not easy for chain wholesalers with locations that do smaller volumes ownership to make money. This will result in creating some underserved markets where to be profitable, margins are increased causing retailers to bypass local sources and go to national distributors or direct to farms. 

    We will continue to see more closings and sales of retail florists. From 1992 to 2025, we have seen the number of florists drop from 27,000 to 12,000. Since retailer florists make up most of the customers for wholesalers, we can easily see why there is a drop in the number of wholesalers as well as more mergers and acquisitions. When a large retail customer of a regional wholesaler is sold to another large retail customer with different buying habits, it is not unusual for a local wholesaler to feel the pain.

    The percentage of flowers being sold through mass market and e-commerce will continue to grow. Demand for flowers will stay strong in most sectors… maybe a little too strong around the holidays and a little too weak in slow periods. National marketing campaigns will keep trying to increase demand.

    With the recent tariffs and increasing inflationary pricing, there will be more pressure for retailers and event planners to find alternative sources and go around wholesalers.

    So far for 2025, we have seen more importation of flowers from South America as well as more specialty flowers being produced domestically. Open-field flower acreage in the U.S. Has more than doubled between 2017 and 2022 thanks in part to local farms growing flowers that don’t ship well like zinnias and dahlias as well as flowers that do ship well like peonies. Air shipments of imports to Miami are up about 10% this year and ocean shipping is up about 2% year to date. Based on what I see, mass market and e- commerce demand is where the increases are. 

    Many of the Covid buying trends have changed. This explains why a few of the mass market suppliers are purchasing more growing operations. This is especially true since the increase particularly on roses is mostly from Colombia where price points are generally more competitive and tend to go more to mass markets than Ecuador where freight and tariffs are higher. It will be interesting to see how the end of year numbers end up after the impact of the recent tariffs.

    From AFIA: 

    “The Trump Administration issued an update on the reciprocal tariffs in September 2025. In the update there were two attachments Annex 11 and Annex 111.  

    Annex 111 is a list of products that can be considered for lower or no tariffs in the future if the countries work with the Administration on trade relations with the US.  This list is items that are not produced in the US or are not sufficient for the requirements.  Cut flowers are on the list, so we are hoping that the Administration works with Colombia, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Guatemala, etc. That we can get flowers exempt from tariffs.”

    Exchange rates will be influencing the flower industry even on domestically produced products. Since April 2025, the Colombian Peso is approximately 3881 down from 4423 in April of 2025 or approximately 12%. The Euro is currently 1.17 up from 1.02 in February 2025 or approximately up 14+%. Unfortunately, flower producers and  importers have no control over exchange rates and tariffs.

    Growers that concentrate on the United States are very worried and have been seeking other markets especially in Europe and Asia. This is especially true for Colombians and Ecuadoreans. Obviously, the war between Russia and Ukraine has already created issues for many flower producing countries.

    In the future, there could be more worldwide shortages of flowers if more growers continue to stop or reduce flower production as costs increase due to inflation of material costs, transportation and labor. Not to mention exchange rates are absorbing some of the costs of the tariffs and other political regulations. 

    Crop shortages could result from the fact that most of the supply of potassium (50%) comes from countries that are war torn or sanctioned. Fertilizer for crops is a necessity. A country like Brazil imports 98% of its potash supply making them vulnerable to supply and costs.

    Consumer tastes will be changing and they will be leaning toward the purchasing of different varieties of flowers with better value to them. With more breeders developing new and interesting varieties, I predict there will be a superclass of high-end exclusive products that will demand higher prices and demand if these products are grown in moderation and it will be akin to how many Ferraris or Bugatti’s should be built.

    Floradumus sees a lot of changes coming at warp speeds. AI, robots, flower vending machines, and other forms of new technology will change the face of our industry. Better transportation and cooling methods will advance.  New areas to grow flowers around the world will be developed for many reasons as well as new products to keep the consumers’ appetite for the latest and greatest trends and varieties (After all, the iPhone 17 just came out!).

    See you in the future,

    Floradamus

    For more on the economy, logistics, inflation, and more see the Wizard’s Wand News!

    To contact Floradamus through Above All Flowers 

    Email: aboveallflowers@mac.com

    Call: 401-486-0525

  • October 2025

    By David Kaplan

    Greetings from the Wizard,

    Lots of Economic News

    THE FED

    There has been a lot of news reporting about the Federal Reserve and interest rates. Finally on September 17, 2025, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4% to 4.25% and signaled two more rate cuts may be coming by year’s end based on economic reports. 

    The Congressional Budget Office has revised its economic outlook, predicting slower growth, higher inflation and increased unemployment this year. The budget office expects the economy to expand 1.4% in 2025, down from 1.9%, with inflation rising to 3.1%. Unemployment is projected to peak at 4.5% by year’s end.

    The unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in August (the highest in nearly 4 years). Economists attribute the slowdown to trade policies and immigration crackdowns and policies. The FED saw certain signals of slowing economic activity that outweighed the tariff-driven inflation that kept rates on hold. 

    The Fed has seen that hiring by small businesses is no longer driving US job growth resulting in an economic slowdown/downturn. Unfilled job openings in small companies are the lowest since 2020. The seasonal retail hiring is looking like it will be the lowest since the 2009 recession, according to CNBC. There won’t be as much hiring, but there won’t be as much firing, either.

    According to information from the University of Michigan: “US consumer sentiment declined in September for the second consecutive month with the University of Michigan’s index dropping to 55.4, the lowest since May and a 21% drop from a year ago. Americans are increasingly worried about job security and inflation, with 65% expecting higher unemployment in the next year. This decline in sentiment follows recent economic data showing a net loss of jobs in June and a revision indicating 911,000 fewer employed people than previously reported.” 

    The U.S. national debt has grown at an unprecedented rate over the last 15 years, with government deficit spending currently projected to surpass government revenue growth and economic growth into the future. 

    This trend can produce potential problems for both long-term U.S. economic prospects and the global financial markets. Obviously not a great place to be. 

    TARIFFS

    It is hard to write this without bringing up tariffs so here we go with a tariff section.

    Businesses are struggling to set prices amid US tariffs which have led to uncertainty about costs and consumer acceptance. With pre-tariff inventories dwindling, companies are mulling price hikes, but inflation weary consumers and stiff competition make it difficult to determine how much of the added costs can be passed on. “Everyone is struggling to figure out what to do, what’s the right decision, where do we set prices,” said Clifford Thompson, president of Thompson Traders.

    Small businesses, including those in the floral industry, have faced challenges adapting to increased tariffs that have raised operational and production costs.  Almost half of small and midsize US companies have seen costs rise more than 20% since widespread tariffs were imposed, according to a survey by cargo booking platform Freightos. According to Freightos, about the same proportion of respondents say they have reduced shipment volumes because of the higher costs. Unlike larger corporations, these firms lack the resources to absorb sudden changes in tariffs and rising costs leaving them more vulnerable to the financial impacts of ongoing trade tensions.

    TARIFFS AND LOGISTICS

    “We have seen the implementation of reciprocal tariffs across the globe, with several key trading partners being subjected to tariffs higher than the earlier 10% tariffs,” National Retail Federation Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said, in a release. “We also continue to see more sectoral tariffs impacting a wider scope of products. Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariff increases, but the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success.” 

    US retailers have been moving holiday imports at least a month earlier than usual aiming to mitigate the risks and costs associated with shifting tariff policies. The traditional seasonal surge in shipments ahead of Christmas has been front loaded with most end of the year goods already moving through the supply chain.

    August was the Port of Long Beach’s second busiest August and sixth busiest month in its over 100-year history. This was due to importers trying to beat the implementation of higher tariffs.

    Major U.S. container ports handled 2.36 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in July, according to the National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker. That was a gain of 20.1% from June as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of tariffs set to take effect in August. It was also 1.8% higher year-over-year and the second-busiest month since 2.4 million TEUs in May 2022.

    Rising tariffs are resulting in steady declines of import cargo volume at U.S. container ports and are anticipated to decline steadily through the end of this year following the near record summer peak, according to the nation’s biggest retailers. 

    The high tariffs from China have resulted in a major drop off of inbound products to the States. September volume at US container ports looks very gloomy.

    US port traffic is expected to decline for the remainder of the year as tariffs take a toll on imports. 

    As the de minimis law ends the US reliance on imports, the EU has surpassed China in terms of total value and product variety according to a study from Germany’s IW economic institute. The study shows that the number of product groups in which at least 50% of imports come from the EU has risen to more than 3,100 with a total value of $287 billion while China accounts for 2,925 product groups worth $247 billion. 

    According to the Wall Street Journal, FedEx expects to take a $1 billion hit to its fiscal 2026 earnings because of recent US tariff changes. The company reported $6.1 billion in adjusted operating income in the previous fiscal year highlighting the significance of this anticipated impact. The loss is largely attributed to the end of the de minimis provision which had previously exempted lower-value packages from tariffs.

    Fed Ex CEO Raj Subramaniam said during an earnings report that they reduced freighter aircraft out of Asia to the United States by 25% because of the change in tariff policy. E-commerce companies are increasingly turning to foreign trade zones to manage tariffs more efficiently as the US ends the de minimis provision that exempted shipments of $800 or less from duties. FedEx Corp.’s ability to adapt its air network from the U.S. to European markets helped stabilize international shipping volumes as Trump’s new tariffs on e-commerce goods from China pressured consumers. The May 2 cancellation of the de minimis rule, a duty-free exemption for low-value parcels, also sharply reduced airfreight for e-commerce shipments.

    In an announcement on Thursday September 25th, Trump unveiled new tariffs on imported heavy-duty trucks, furniture, and pharmaceuticals set to take effect Wednesday October 1st. Trump hopes a 25% import tax on all heavy-duty trucks will increase domestic truck production.

    These constantly changing U.S. tariff policies have created havoc with freight markets. As we mentioned earlier, many shippers forwarded overseas orders to beat tariff deadlines and then reduced imports because inventories are high and they are looking to find suppliers outside China — where average U.S. tariffs are 58%. 

    In a video briefing for journalists on Monday, DHL executives said they are working overtime helping customers deal with the rising cost, complexity and uncertainty associated with the changing tariff landscape. “For a small business owner, it can be overwhelming. So, we’ve got to be ready to help them mitigate some of these impacts by having advanced customs services, looking at things like foreign trade zones and specialized brokerage options. We have to help them manage the timing of when they owe duty and taxes, how they’re moving inventory around and positioning it for U.S. delivery as it’s coming in” said Greg Hewitt, CEO of DHL Express U.S.

    More than three in four US and European companies have seen profit decline because of tariffs and 84% of businesses plan to raise prices to counter the impact, but most say it could be weeks or months before prices change according to a survey by Censuswide and software developer Enable. Nearly half are planning to reduce operations or exit high tariff markets amid ongoing uncertainty. Enable CEO Andrew Butt says, “Pricing agility has become an essential survival skill.”

    TARIFFS AND THE COURTS (including the Supreme Court)

    Importers are taking a wait-and-see approach after a federal appeals court ruled many of the Trump Administration’s tariffs illegal and that Trump exceeded his authority in imposing many of the tariffs. There is a stay in place until Oct. 14 and a fast-track Supreme Court appeal likely in November. The ruling raises questions about potential refunds of billions of dollars in trade duties. The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit has ruled that the law the administration cited does not give the president authority to impose tariffs. The tariffs will remain in effect while the case plays out, but the decision has added further trade uncertainty potentially delaying corporate investment.

    The tariffs, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs affect trillions of dollars in international commerce and have raised the average US tariff rate to its highest level in over a century. 

    TARIFFS, INFLATION, AND THE FLOWER BUSINESS 

    Inflation and uncertainty created by President Trump’s tariffs are problems for the Flower industry.  They have even affected domestic growers as even plant material, machinery, and packing materials are subject to tariffs. Most of these items are not produced in the US and are unlikely to be manufactured in the US in the future.

    Constant economic uncertainty stemming from unclear tariff policies is inhibiting US companies’ ability to make strategic decisions and long-term investments. Experts stress that this unpredictability undermines business confidence and could slow economic growth as both businesses and consumers face an unstable economic environment. One European flower exporter stated on social media that their US sales could be down as much as ten million Euros due to exchange rates and tariffs. This will force companies to search for other markets to make up for these sales or downsize.

    As prices increase due to inflation influenced by tariffs, consumers tend to buy less floral products other than for major occasions and events. This hurts the day-to-day impulse business.

    CONCLUSION

    The Flower business is an economy very much influenced by tariffs, exchange rates, freight costs, immigration policy, and inflation as well as labor costs. The US flower industry depends on imports for the majority of its product. Uncertain Government policy leads to havoc with growth and investment. 

    Most of the custom brokers nationwide are charging a percentage of the tariffs due to the cost of handling and cost of money. This is putting a lot of stress on flower importers.

    It is very apparent that the Trump Administration has figured out how to manipulate Wall Street and exchange rates. It’s not clear if this is the best way to help Main Street.

    On September 25th, the Trump Administration announced new tariffs as high as 100% on certain products going into effect in October leaving even more uncertainty with businesses. Stay tuned.

    We are into a government shut down that may last longer than everyone would like to see. We hope this does not hurt the flower business.There is also a National Strike in Ecuador as well a small political issue within Colombia. On September 27th, the U.S. State Department said it was revoking the visa of Colombian President Gustavo Petro who had traveled to New York for the United Nations General Assembly annual meeting.

    On a lighter note, there are rumors that the NFL may extend the season by one more game in the future making the day after the Super Bowl President’s Day. This should help Valentine’s Day and give the country the (double) holiday they have been lobbying for (The day after the Super Bowl!).

    Thanks for reading my rants,

    The Flower Wizard

    To contact David Kaplan (also known as the “Flower Wizard” or “Floradamus”) at Above All Flowers

    Email: aboveallflowers@mac.com

    Call 401-486-0525