ABOVE ALL FLOWERS

By David Kaplan aka “Floradamus”

There’s a quote often credited to Russian revolutionary Vladimir Lenin (although there is no evidence that Lenin ever spoke or wrote these words):

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen.”

The month of January felt like some of those weeks. Long periods of slow change are often punctuated by sudden, intense periods of rapid transformation, leading to significant shifts in society, economics, politics, and technology. Despite possibly not having been written by Lenin at all, it nonetheless expresses a sentiment that resonates today It highlights how history’s biggest events, like revolutions or major breakthroughs, can unfold in incredibly short time frames after long buildups of tension or development.

Geopolitical conflict will continue to loom amid negotiations over Greenland, U.S.-backed leadership in Venezuela, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Gaza, as well as persistent tensions between the U.S. and Iran as well as with our friends in Canada. Not to mention the rest of the world that is looking at other markets to deal with to avoid participating in the tariff war. We also must watch rising social unrest domestically (in part in response to Immigration and Customs Enforcement activity). AI is changing the world as well on many things including the job market as well as the energy sector.

In recent weeks, Trump has threatened tariffs against Canada, South Korea and eight European countries, invoking the tool as means of exerting pressure over a range of foreign-policy issues.
Solid economic growth looks like it will continue for 2026. This growth may be tempered possibly by a weaker employment market

Short Term Predictions

2025 was marked by escalating tariffs in the United States. Duties on Ecuadorian flowers rose to 21.8%. The sector is awaiting a statement from the U.S. government and is moving forward with efforts to exclude this product from the surcharge. As of October, the United States remained the leading buyer of Ecuadorian flowers.

Ecuador is currently negotiating the elimination of that 15% surcharge as part of a group that includes Argentina, El Salvador, and Guatemala. If successful, the country would return to paying only the 6.8% tariff. This would improve Ecuador’s relative position compared to Colombia, whose tariff would not benefit from such an exemption.

Gustavo Petro is the current president of Colombia and is the country’s first left-wing leader. As of February 2026, he is engaged in high-level diplomatic meetings, including a recent, surprisingly cordial, and constructive meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House regarding regional issues. Perhaps the relationship between the two countries will improve.

Not surprisingly, Washington politics will also be a major factor in the economic outlook. Mid-term elections are coming soon and hopefully some of the current politicians are replaced and the uncertainty of what is happening can be corrected and we can continue a more even course with less disruption.

The stock market could be affected by a series of unknowns, including the potential for another government shutdown and the upcoming mid-term elections. There will certainly be some impact on Fed policy with the appointment of a new Fed chairperson, with Chairman Powell’s term up in May. Tariffs remain a major concern as the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to announce its decision on a court case challenging the legality of recent tariffs, and as Trump threatens additional tariffs, most recently on European countries related to administration’s interest in Greenland. The Supreme court has met at least three times to determine if these Tariffs are legal but have not made a decision. Maybe it has to do with who appointed the majority of Supreme Court Judges. Floradamus hopes the tariffs will be removed on all flowers and avoid the possibility of shrinking the Floral Industry which is already challenged by pricing increases.

It will certainly be tough with the new minimum wages for the Colombian flower growers. Since Covid, high inflation, exchange rates, and tariffs prices have continued to rise. We have seen a thinning out of the number of wholesalers, growers, and even retailers through mergers and acquisitions. It is possible more mergers and acquisitions will accelerate as a way to cut costs.

It could be that as many as 30 percent of Colombian farms find themselves in financial trouble by May or June do the wage increases, tariffs, and exchange rates We have seen many retailers close in the last few years and it looks like that trend will continue. As less retailers exist it also decreases the need for as many wholesalers. Larger more successful retailers continue to grow and many buy farm direct and reinforce the need for less wholesalers. It appears that there are specialty flower growers popping up in all 50 states from very small to very large. These operations sell to retailers, event florists, wholesalers, and mass markets. Many of these farms also sell to the public, do weddings and events, and some are even event venues. These operations are further eroding imports. The big problem for the specialty growers is that most have poor logistics other than locally and have not solved the last mile solution.

More from SAF:

According to a recent SAF report they stated a few interesting statistics. For 2025, net profits for retailers had 27% reporting an increase, 34% maintaining previous levels, and 31% experiencing a decline. This means that 65% either lost money or were flat compared to the previous year. These are not great results for any industry.

Most floral businesses finished 2025 with “good” or “okay” sales but high costs, political tension and a weekend Valentine’s Day have curbed the outlook for 2026, according to respondents of a recent survey by the Society of American Florists.

SAF’s Economic Outlook survey, conducted last month, gathered insights from 166 retailers, growers, wholesalers, importers and suppliers about their financial performance in 2025 and expectations for 2026.

Overall, business sentiment is cautiously optimistic. The survey found that 45.6% of respondents described business as “good,” and 35.9% said business was just “okay.” Respondents cited tariffs, inflation and customers’ financial strain as their top challenges in 2025 and continued concerns for 2026.

Where are we headed?

Good question. Floradamus feels like everyone else in the Floral industry that we are facing lots of challenges. The Floral industry as overcome many challenges in the past and will continue to do so. The pricing for certain flowers is creating roadblocks and reducing some consumption. Growers must be more creative to figure out ways to reduce freight, increase labor efficiency, and grow more productively without sacrificing quality. The wholesale and retail industry can not continue with prices that remain high. More sales will shift to either other more competitive outlets or people will buy less flowers from traditional sources. Other than Taylor Swift and people with her economic means will use less wedding flowers if prices don’t correct themselves. In a nutshell it is basically harder and more complicated to do business. Keep Calm and continue to be resilient.

See you in the future,

Floradamus

For more on tariffs, the economy, logistics, inflation, and more, see The Wizard’s Wand News!

To contact Floradamus through Above All Flowers

Email: aboveallflowers@mac.com

Call: 401-486-0525