Floradamus apologizes for the long pause since the last blog; as the Wizard noted, a great deal has been happening around the world.
Who is Floradamus? Like Nostradamus, he makes predictions—some may come true, while others may miss completely and earn him the nickname “Flora Dumb Ass.”
Who was Nostradamus? He was regarded as an oracle, someone believed to offer wisdom, guidance, and predictions about the future.
In that spirit, Floradamus is the flower world’s “Floracle,” offering predictions that may prove even more useful and influential than Nostradamus’s for the flower world.
What does Floradamus see ahead for the floral industry?
Based on current conditions, prices are likely to remain elevated until the war with Iran ends, and stability returns to the Strait of Hormuz and other strategic waterways. Inflation continues to make everyday purchases feel less affordable, and the Fed raised interest rates last week to help curb inflation and support the job market.
Today, Floradamus paid $5.15 per gallon for non-diesel gasoline—the highest price he has ever paid. Consumers cannot sustain fuel costs this high for long, and the pressure is likely to affect both the midterm elections and everyday spending on flowers. Most florists are absorbing these higher prices while buying conservatively and avoiding speculative purchases.
Retail and wholesale buyers will continue bypassing intermediaries and purchasing as directly from farms as possible to reduce their cost of goods sold. This shift will also increase the need for more efficient, lower-cost transportation. Because air and courier services are far more expensive than trucking, the industry will need to develop and refine more cold-chain depots with last-mile delivery solutions.
Traditional E-commerce is also challenged by higher costs of goods and transportation. High end mass markets seem to be gaining sales as they are becoming alternatives for Traditional retail and E-commerce. Many Mass markets are providing e commerce services at more competitive prices as they are set up to deliver flowers on a regional basis avoiding much higher freight rates. Traditional florists are also increasingly purchasing flowers from supermarkets.
The balance between Ecuador and Colombia will continue to shift. Colombia’s costs are rising, while Ecuador holds several advantages. Ecuadorian growers are expanding their offerings to compete with suppliers around the world. Still, conditions can change quickly—including government policies—making this trend difficult to predict. It is also possible that other countries with favorable U.S. relations and lower production costs could replace some products currently sourced from Colombia, and perhaps even Ecuador. Ecuador is also broadening its product portfolio and strengthening its position in both the mass-market and specialty flower segments.
High jet fuel costs have led airlines to raise both freight rates and passenger fares. They are also reducing capacity by using smaller aircraft and cutting flight frequency to certain destinations, which helps control costs and keep planes full. As a result, freight space is tightening, and air freight rates remain at record highs. The problem with freight rates like fuel prices is that they go up faster than they come down.
El Niño is beyond anyone’s control, and its effect on the floral industry over the next year remains uncertain. At times, forecasts can be overhyped; at other times, the impact can exceed expectations.
If current conditions continue, the flower industry could lose volume as higher prices make flowers—unlike necessities such as food—less affordable for consumers.
Prices can only rise so far before they begin to hurt competitiveness with other items and reduce consumption.
For Canada, it is still unclear whether the two leaders will resolve their dispute amicably. Canada has threatened to shift away from the U.S. and seek other trading partners, but that would be difficult for flowers because geography limits Canadian growers’ options. If the dispute is resolved, Canada may preserve its market share. If not, it may shift production toward domestic demand, reduce imports from South America and the European Union, or sharply cut flower production as the U.S. market declines.
At some point, a powerful political leader may conclude that tariffs are harming American consumers, repeal them, and return to free trade.
Given the floral industry’s current economic pressures, Floradamus predicts many growers will face tighter cash flow. This could limit spending on new varieties from breeders and equipment, while also encouraging shifts away from labor-intensive crops.
In conclusion, mergers and acquisitions slowed in the third quarter of 2026, with private equity activity easing as well. Higher interest rates and fixed-income bond returns above 5% have made fundraising more difficult for private equity investors, as lower-risk options have become more attractive.
Hopefully, conditions will improve and we can return to a more open, dynamic market sooner rather than later.
Until next time,
Floradamus
For more on tariffs, the economy, logistics, inflation, and related topics, visit The Wizard’s Wand News!
To reach Floradamus through Above All Flowers, use the contact information below.
Email: aboveallflowers@mac.com
Call: 401-486-0525
Leave a comment