ABOVE ALL FLOWERS

By David Kaplan, the Flower Wizard

Greetings to our friends and followers around the world,

Why Are Flower Prices So High: A Perfect Storm or a Temporary Glitch?

Why are Flower Prices so High? A Perfect Storm or a Temporary Glitch?

As Fall 2026 begins, we recognize that the past six years have been anything but normal for the floral industry. This year, the challenges continue—and in many ways, they are greater than ever. The issues outlined in the following paragraphs may be clear, but their long-term impact on the future may be less obvious.

The war with Iran has had a significant impact on the global economy, pushing up energy costs, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, market volatility, fixed-income rates, insurance expenses, wages, and labor shortages—making it increasingly difficult for floral businesses to stay as profitable. Here’s why:

Rising Freight and Fuel Costs:

Transportation costs are adding significant pressure across the floral supply chain:

• Diesel fuel: Prices are at record highs, exceeding $6 per gallon in most states and topping $7 in some markets.
• LTL freight: Higher fuel costs have pushed fuel surcharges to roughly 66%.
• Air freight: Rates have climbed to levels rarely seen outside major flower holidays, with some carriers also adding war-related surcharges.

Diesel prices are expected to remain near record highs through at least mid-2027. Tight global supplies, low reserves, and depleted inventories could keep costs elevated for a year or more. Reserves are low.

Why Diesel Prices May Stay High

• Global supply disruptions: The war with Iran and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have restricted refinery output and disrupted shipping through critical routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
• Depleted inventories: U.S. and global distillate stocks remain at multi-year lows and are not expected to rebuild significantly through 2026 or 2027.
• Strong export demand: Refiners continue sending large volumes of fuel overseas, where shortages are more severe, which keeps domestic supply tight.

Tariff changes have benefited some flower-producing countries, such as Ecuador, while creating greater challenges for others, including Colombia, whose current rate is nearly double Ecuador’s. The legal outlook for this new tariff remains uncertain. Fortunately, the first two tariffs in this tariff dispute are gradually being refunded, helping importers offset the higher freight, currency exchange, and labor costs they have faced since 2025.

Rising costs in Colombia have prompted some bouquet producers to move operations to Ecuador, where lower labor costs and a dollarized economy provide important advantages. Although freight from Ecuador has historically been much higher than from Colombia, rates between the two countries have recently begun to narrow.

Weaker Dollar

Colombia

Colombia’s exchange rate has historically been an advantage for the country’s flower sector, but that has changed significantly. In April 2025, the rate was more than 4,400 pesos to 1 U.S. dollar; by this summer, it had fallen to the low 3,000s—a drop of about 28%. Although Colombia sells most of its flowers in U.S. dollars and euros, it pays for labor, supplies, and other domestic expenses in pesos. This shift has placed considerable pressure on the flower industry, especially alongside 2026 wage increases, higher costs for oil-related products such as plastics and fertilizers, and rising freight rates to bring in those materials. Price increases are necessary to remain profitable. With production costs in Colombia rising across the board, those pressures are now reflected in current selling prices.

Some companies are already under financial pressure and have sought protection; it will be worth watching whether larger growers acquire them at discounted prices.

Politics has also played a role in Colombia. Former president Gustavo Petro created challenges for Colombian flower exporters, as wage increases tightened the labor market and raised export costs. The new president, Abelardo de la Espriella, who took office in August 2026, is working to stabilize the situation and improve relations with the United States. However, his administration’s immediate priority is responding to the recent devastating earthquake in Colombia.

Canada

Canada has long been a major flower supplier to the United States, but that role is now being challenged by a 50% tariff on most flowers amid the current tariff war.

El Niño’s Potential Impact on Flowers

We are also facing a historic, “supersized” El Niño forming in the Pacific Ocean. Forecasters estimate there is more than a 90% chance it will reach “super” El Niño status and a 75% chance it could become the strongest event on record since 1950. This follows a summer of unusual weather across the United States, including an especially unusual hurricane season for the Hawaiian Islands.

El Niño can affect the floral industry in two main ways:

• Production: Shifts in temperature, rainfall, drought, or flooding can disrupt growing conditions in affected regions.
• Demand: Severe weather can change consumer behavior, transportation patterns, and retail activity in impacted markets.

Key Global Trends and Their Severity

Meteorological organizations, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), report that unusually warm tropical ocean conditions are driving this event. It is expected to peak between October and December and continue well into 2027. 

Expected global weather impacts include:

• Extreme heat: Fueled in part by the climate crisis, 2026 and 2027 are expected to rank among the warmest years on record. [
• Severe regional droughts: Areas that are normally wet—including Southeast Asia, Australia, parts of Central and Northern South America, and the Caribbean—are preparing for serious drought conditions. The World Food Program has warned that related food shortages could push 50 million people into acute hunger. 
• Intense flooding: Dry coastal areas, especially along the western coasts of Peru and Ecuador, could see severe storms and dangerous flash flooding

The year ahead will be shaped by many moving parts, including economics, politics, weather, social changes, and other factors. Please feel free to contact me for more information or perspectives on navigating the current environment.

Thanks, and all the best,

The Flower Wizard

To reach the Wizard through Above All Flowers, use the contact information below.

Email: aboveallflowers@mac.com 

or

Call: 401-486-0525